THE Ministry of National Development Planning (PPN)/National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas) predicts economic growth in 2021 in the range of 4.2% to 4.8%.

According to Minister of PPN/Head of Bappenas Suharso Monoarfa, said 4.2% growth would be realized if the COVID-19 pandemic cases continued to decline until September 2021, while 4.8% would be achieved if the decline occurred in July 2021.

“We are trying to calculate with Faculty of Medicine, University of Indonesia (FKUI) how, in addition to the achievement of herd immunity, we want the public to start believing so that mobility can move,” he said at a joint meeting with Commission XI of the DPR RI in Jakarta.

Suharso explained that the estimation to achieve a controlled COVID-19 outbreak is to reduce the effective reproductive rate from 1.2 to 0.9 and achieve herd immunity of 181.5 million out of a total of 269 million Indonesians.

He said that to achieve herd immunity for 181.5 million people, around 426.8 million doses of vaccine were needed with the target of completing the vaccination program in 15 months.

Suharso detailed that to achieve a growth of 4.8 percent, vaccination must be able to reach more than one million people per day and the target of the vaccine is 70 million or 39% of the assumption that 181.5 million people will be completed in July 2021.

On the other hand, he said that if vaccination was only able to reach a figure below one million per day and the target vaccine target of 70 million people was only realized in September 2021, then the economy would only grow 4.2%.

“If the vaccine is faster with the current speed, the current speed will be achieved in September 2021,” he concluded. [antaranews/photo special]