ER
INDONESIAN Government estimates that economic growth will reach 3.1%-3.3% on an annual basis (yoy) in the first semester of 2021 driven by the projected return of the economic rate to a positive level in the second quarter of 2021 to 7% from the negative zone for the last four quarters.
Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati in a press conference after the Plenary Cabinet Session in Jakarta, Monday, said the government still sees the growth of Gross Domestic Product in the second quarter will reach 7% year on year (yoy) due to the impact of the new Emergency Restrictions on Community Activities (PPKM). felt in the third and fourth quarters of 2021.
“In the first quarter, economic growth was minus 0.7%. In the second quarter, we estimate economic growth at 7%, so the realization in the first semester of 2021 will be 3.1-3.3%,” he said.
According to Sri Mulyani, the impact of Emergency PPKM will be felt in the third and fourth quarters of 2021. If the government’s scenario to reduce the rate of transmission of COVID-19 is effective, it is likely that in August 2021 community activities can recover because restrictions on community mobility are relaxed. If that happens, economic growth in the third quarter of 2021 could exceed 4%.
“However, if the long restrictions due to COVID-19 are high, the third quarter economic growth could decrease by around 4%. This is something to watch out for. Therefore, public compliance with the COVID-1 prevention health protocol and the acceleration of COVID-19 vaccination are important requirements for controlling the pandemic and restoring economic activity,” he said.
He explained that the acceleration of vaccination is an important requirement and therefore an increase in the number (injections) of vaccines to 2 million per day or even if we want to finish before the end of this year, we need to vaccinate up to 3 million per day in the next October-November period.
While the inflation rate in the first semester of 2021 is estimated by Sri Mulyani at 1.33%, or lower than the assumption in the 2021 State Budget of 3%. Then the average exchange rate of the rupiah against the US dollar in the first semester of 2021 is at IDR14,299 per US dollar, or stronger than the assumption in the 2021 State Budget which is IDR14,600 per US dollar. [antaranews]
