ER
IT IS estimated that foreign tourist visits to Indonesia next year will still be low because the world is still facing a pandemic situation.
According to INDef Executive Director Tauhid Ahmad, said the tourism sector in Indonesia is still dominated by domestic tourists compared to international tourists in general.
“For international tourists in 2022, it seems that they can’t expect much because the pandemic situation is still happening and many institutions have predicted that the situation will indeed improve, but it’s not as normal as it used to be,” said Tauhid in a national webinar, Friday (12/10).
The opportunity for the third wave, coupled with the Omicron COVID-19 variant, said Tauhid, is a variable that needs to be taken into account in reading the forecast for the growth of the tourism industry in 2022. He also emphasized that Indonesia needs to be aware of and anticipate the worst conditions while maintaining the main entry point for international flows.
“For the next 2022, I think there is a need to anticipate a third wave. The main entrance of this entrance should not be broken. After we learn to deal with the COVID-19 wave twice, it’s usually a month’s lag,” he said.
If there is no pandemic, Tauhid estimates that the normal growth of the number of foreign tourists will be in the range of 14 to 15 million people per month. But as the world is still facing a pandemic, that number will be much lower.
“If we look at the forecast, there is an Omicron situation and the fourth wave is starting to occur in many countries, then indeed the number of international tourists will not shift. It’s still around 140 to 150 thousand per month,” he noted
Meanwhile, if the pandemic situation begins to improve and some nearby countries begin to open entry and exit doors, such as China, Malaysia and Singapore, then Indonesia has the opportunity for tourism growth at a moderate level.
But it’s a bit difficult to be optimistic, for example, if the Omicron variant doesn’t exist and the obstacle, let’s say that the restriction is from the flight side, doesn’t happen and from this point of view
“I see that in 2022 even though there is an optimistic scenario with various variables, it is very difficult to happen if we are at a normal level of the number of foreign tourists even though the situation has started to recover, it will not happen until 2022 seeing several variables which I think are quite critical,” he added.
As for the projection of economic growth in 2022, Indef estimates a moderate increase of around 5 percent taking into account the fiscal side and conditions of other driving factors.
“Next year several sectors in the tourism industry will continue to have an impact by considering third wave opportunities, such as the transportation and warehousing sector and the food and drink accommodation sector,” he remarked.
In the usual scenario, he continued that the transportation and warehousing sector is predicted to grow by around 5.5%. Meanwhile, if the pandemic situation can be handled properly and it starts to return to normal, it is estimated that it can grow above 6.2 to 6.6%. Meanwhile, the food and beverage accommodation sector are projected to grow around 4.9% in the usual scenario and 5.6 to 5.9% in the moderate to optimistic scenario. [antaranews]
