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THE PACIFIC Asia Travel Association (PATA) shows the PATA Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2026-2028, which shows that inbound arrivals to the Asia Pacific region are projected to exceed pre-pandemic levels from 2026 onward, with the baseline reaching 761.2 million by 2028.
However, in light of evolving geopolitical developments and macroeconomic volatility, the outlook also considers a lower bound forecast scenario, where international visitor arrivals could reach 599.7 million by 2028, representing approximately an 88% recovery compared to 2019 levels.
According to PATA CEO Noor Ahmad Hamid said international tourism is entering a more complex phase where growth continues, but under increasing pressure. At PATA, we recognise both sides of the equation—the positive momentum driven by strong regional demand, and the downside risks arising from geopolitical tensions, economic volatility, and climate-related disruptions.
“In this environment, growth is no longer linear or guaranteed. Destinations and organisations must be prepared for multiple scenarios, with the ability to adapt quickly, recalibrate strategies, and respond with agility. Decision-making must be grounded in real-time data and a clear understanding of risk,” he said.
Noor Ahmad Hamid also explained that ultimately, resilience and preparedness will define how well the industry navigates this next phase of uncertainty.
Meanwhile Professor Haiyan Song, Mr and Mrs Chan Chak Fu Professor in International Tourism, Research Center for Digital Transformation of Tourism, School of Hotel and Tourism Management, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University (SHTM), said the results reflect not only the pace of recovery across destinations, but also the deeper structural changes transforming the tourism economy.
“Understanding these dynamics is critical for destinations seeking to navigate uncertainty while pursuing more sustainable and competitive growth,” both affirmed.
The report was developed in partnership with the Hospitality and Tourism Research Centre at SHTM PolyU, with additional contributions from PATA destination members and regional data partners. It offers inbound visitor forecasts for 39 Asia Pacific destinations, providing a detailed analysis that reflects the diversity of recovery and potential growth of each region and sub-region.
Drawing on current data and scenario-based modelling, the study outlines a period of structurally constrained and uneven growth shaped by geopolitical uncertainty, climate-related disruptions, evolving aviation and visa policies, and rapid digital and AI-driven transformation across the tourism economy.
In addition to the regional outlook, individual destination reports have also been published for all 39 covered destinations, each providing detailed market-specific projections and localised analysis. [sources/photo special]
